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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Jets 4th & 14 at the 45

New York Jets 21 – Jacksonville Jaguars 16

What Actually Happened

(7:51) 4-R.Quigley punts 35 yards to JAX 10, Center-46-T.Purdum, fair catch by 81-B.Walters.

The Three Options

GO -0.33 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +3.76 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 45, worth -1.87 EP
KICK -0.81 EP
  • 33% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.22 EP
  • 67% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 49, worth -2.30 EP
PUNT -0.17 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 12, worth -0.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model