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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Jets 4th & 11 at the 51

New York Jets 28 – Jacksonville Jaguars 23

What Actually Happened

(1:05) 4-R.Quigley punts 43 yards to JAX 8, Center-46-T.Purdum, downed by NYJ-54-J.Lattimore.

The Three Options

GO -0.72 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +0.74 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 51, worth -1.39 EP
KICK -0.59 EP
  • 20% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.53 EP
  • 80% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 49, worth -1.38 EP
PUNT -0.25 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 14, worth -0.25 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model