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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Jets 4th & 3 at the 25

New York Jets 7 – Jacksonville Jaguars 3

What Actually Happened

(2:27) (Shotgun) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass short left to 87-E.Decker to JAX 10 for 15 yards (22-A.Colvin).

The Three Options

GO +1.89 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 22, worth +4.60 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 25, worth -0.72 EP
KICK +1.66 EP
  • 82% chance to make a 42-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.40 EP
  • 18% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 35, worth -1.64 EP
PUNT +0.12 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth +0.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model