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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 3 at the 3

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 6 – New York Giants 17

What Actually Happened

(:10) (Field Goal formation) 10-C.Barth 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-A.DePaola, Holder-5-J.Schum.

The Three Options

GO +3.19 EP
Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.93 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 3, worth +0.13 EP
KICK +2.93 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 20-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.99 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 21, worth -0.01 EP
PUNT +0.01 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth +0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model