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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 2 at the 34

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 9 – New York Giants 20

What Actually Happened

(7:20) (Field Goal formation) 10-C.Barth 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-A.DePaola, Holder-5-J.Schum.

The Three Options

GO +1.58 EP
Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 32, worth +3.95 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 34, worth -1.42 EP
KICK +0.87 EP
What Happened
  • 67% chance to make a 51-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.39 EP
  • 33% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 44, worth -2.17 EP
PUNT +0.14 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth +0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.72 EP