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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 10 at the 47

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 12 – New York Giants 20

What Actually Happened

(:31) (Punt formation) 5-J.Schum punts 36 yards to NYG 11, Center-48-A.DePaola, fair catch by 17-D.Harris.

The Three Options

GO -0.48 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 37, worth +3.48 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 47, worth -2.29 EP
KICK -0.75 EP
  • 34% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.52 EP
  • 66% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 49, worth -2.43 EP
PUNT +0.10 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 13, worth +0.10 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model