Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Giants 4th & 7 at the 76

New York Giants 20 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 12

What Actually Happened

(11:51) (Punt formation) 9-B.Wing punts 64 yards to TB 12, Center-51-Z.DeOssie. 43-B.Rainey MUFFS catch, touched at TB 12, and recovers at TB 12. 43-B.Rainey to TB 13 for 1 yard (43-C.Dahl, 98-D.Moore).

The Three Options

GO -1.99 EP

42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 69, worth +1.18 EP
58% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 76, worth -4.33 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model