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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Giants 4th & 9 at the 17

New York Giants 0 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 3

What Actually Happened

(9:57) (Field Goal formation) 3-J.Brown 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, Holder-9-B.Wing.

The Three Options

GO +0.98 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 8, worth +5.26 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 17, worth -0.97 EP
KICK +1.62 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 92% chance to make a 34-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.87 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 27, worth -1.45 EP
PUNT -0.35 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model