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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Giants 4th & 3 at the 26

New York Giants 23 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 18

What Actually Happened

(:28) (Field Goal formation) 3-J.Brown 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, Holder-9-B.Wing.

The Three Options

GO +0.67 EP
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 23, worth +1.50 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 26, worth -0.17 EP
KICK +2.29 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 82% chance to make a 43-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.87 EP
  • 18% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 36, worth -0.35 EP
PUNT -0.02 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model