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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tennessee Titans 4th & 3 at the 73

Tennessee Titans 0 – New Orleans Saints 0

What Actually Happened

(13:49) 6-B.Kern punts 56 yards to NO 17, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 23-M.Murphy to NO 28 for 11 yards (52-S.Johnson).

The Three Options

GO -1.55 EP
Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.04 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 73, worth -4.53 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

PUNT -2.05 EP
What Happened
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 31, worth -2.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.50 EP