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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New Orleans Saints 4th & 7 at the 67

New Orleans Saints 21 – Tennessee Titans 17

What Actually Happened

(7:08) 6-T.Morstead punts 45 yards to TEN 22, Center-47-J.Drescher. 22-D.McCluster to TEN 29 for 7 yards (20-B.Dixon).

The Three Options

GO -1.41 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +2.10 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 67, worth -3.72 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -1.31 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 25, worth -1.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model