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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tennessee Titans 4th & 2 at the 63

Tennessee Titans 17 – New Orleans Saints 21

What Actually Happened

(5:40) 6-B.Kern punts 55 yards to NO 8, Center-48-B.Brinkley, downed by TEN-28-M.Huff.

The Three Options

GO -0.33 EP
Model's Pick
  • 59% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 61, worth +1.92 EP
  • 41% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 63, worth -3.56 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

PUNT -0.73 EP
What Happened
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 21, worth -0.73 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.40 EP