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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New Orleans Saints 4th & 4 at the 63

New Orleans Saints 21 – Tennessee Titans 17

What Actually Happened

(1:54) 6-T.Morstead punts 46 yards to TEN 17, Center-47-J.Drescher, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.75 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +1.98 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 63, worth -3.32 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

PUNT -0.90 EP
What Happened
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 21, worth -0.90 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model