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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tennessee Titans 4th & 7 at the 11

Tennessee Titans 17 – New Orleans Saints 21

What Actually Happened

(7:22) 4-R.Succop 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Holder-6-B.Kern.

The Three Options

GO +1.79 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 4, worth +5.93 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 11, worth -0.14 EP
KICK +1.93 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 28-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.05 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 22, worth -0.95 EP
PUNT -0.14 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth -0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model