4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tennessee Titans 4th & 8 at the 78

Tennessee Titans 20 – New Orleans Saints 21

What Actually Happened

(2:40) 6-B.Kern punts 48 yards to NO 30, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 23-M.Murphy to NO 38 for 8 yards (45-J.Fowler).

The Three Options

GO -2.36 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.22 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 78, worth -4.52 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

PUNT -2.00 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 35, worth -2.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model