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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New Orleans Saints 4th & 10 at the 60

New Orleans Saints 28 – Tennessee Titans 28

What Actually Happened

(4:36) 6-T.Morstead punts 49 yards to TEN 11, Center-47-J.Drescher, fair catch by 22-D.McCluster.

The Three Options

GO -1.33 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.30 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 60, worth -3.13 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

PUNT -0.62 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 19, worth -0.62 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model