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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tennessee Titans 4th & 15 at the 37

Tennessee Titans 28 – New Orleans Saints 28

What Actually Happened

(2:00) 4-R.Succop 55 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Crossbar, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Holder-6-B.Kern.

The Three Options

GO -0.89 EP
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 22, worth +1.71 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 37, worth -1.73 EP
KICK +0.28 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 62% chance to make a 54-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.77 EP
  • 38% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 46, worth -2.11 EP
PUNT -0.83 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth -0.83 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model