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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Jets 4th & 10 at the 86

New York Jets 0 – Buffalo Bills 0

What Actually Happened

(14:41) 4-R.Quigley punts 68 yards to BUF 18, Center-46-T.Purdum, downed by NYJ-19-D.Smith.

The Three Options

GO -2.64 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 76, worth +1.44 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 86, worth -4.97 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (103 yards).

PUNT -2.06 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 44, worth -2.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model