4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Buffalo Bills 4th & 5 at the 29

Buffalo Bills 0 – New York Jets 3

What Actually Happened

(5:51) 2-D.Carpenter 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-6-C.Schmidt.

The Three Options

GO +0.68 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +4.03 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 29, worth -1.53 EP
KICK +0.82 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to make a 46-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.02 EP
  • 29% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 39, worth -2.16 EP
PUNT -0.42 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth -0.42 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model