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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Buffalo Bills 4th & 11 at the 11

Buffalo Bills 19 – New York Jets 3

What Actually Happened

(8:46) 2-D.Carpenter 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-6-C.Schmidt.

The Three Options

GO +1.23 EP
  • 26% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.81 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 11, worth -0.38 EP
KICK +1.72 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 28-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.87 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 22, worth -1.13 EP
PUNT -0.38 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth -0.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model