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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Buffalo Bills 4th & 2 at the 72

Buffalo Bills 22 – New York Jets 10

What Actually Happened

(2:57) 6-C.Schmidt punts 37 yards to NYJ 35, Center-65-G.Sanborn, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.56 EP
Model's Pick
  • 61% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +0.49 EP
  • 39% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 72, worth -4.72 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -2.35 EP
What Happened
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 30, worth -2.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.79 EP