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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Jets 4th & 2 at the 67

New York Jets 10 – Buffalo Bills 22

What Actually Happened

(11:44) 4-R.Quigley punts 47 yards to BUF 20, Center-46-T.Purdum. 21-L.McKelvin to BUF 21 for 1 yard (19-D.Smith). PENALTY on NYJ-45-R.Miles, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at BUF 21.

The Three Options

GO +0.01 EP
Model's Pick
  • 61% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +2.21 EP
  • 39% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 67, worth -3.37 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -0.33 EP
What Happened
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 25, worth -0.33 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.34 EP