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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Jets 4th & 4 at the 53

New York Jets 10 – Buffalo Bills 22

What Actually Happened

(8:24) (Shotgun) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass deep right to 87-E.Decker to BUF 34 for 19 yards (21-L.McKelvin).

The Three Options

GO -0.30 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +1.84 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 53, worth -2.22 EP
KICK -1.49 EP
  • 14% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.25 EP
  • 86% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 49, worth -2.09 EP
PUNT -0.55 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 15, worth -0.55 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model