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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Jets 4th & 4 at the 7

New York Jets 17 – Buffalo Bills 22

What Actually Happened

(3:02) (Shotgun) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass incomplete short right to 47-K.Davis.

The Three Options

GO +1.56 EP
What Happened
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 3, worth +5.09 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 7, worth -0.92 EP
KICK +1.63 EP
Model's Pick
  • 97% chance to make a 24-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.72 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 21, worth -1.25 EP
PUNT -0.89 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth -0.89 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model