4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Jets 4th & 8 at the 11

New York Jets 0 – Buffalo Bills 0

What Actually Happened

(4:03) 8-R.Bullock 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Purdum, Holder-4-R.Quigley.

The Three Options

GO +2.32 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 3, worth +6.20 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 11, worth +0.57 EP
KICK +2.67 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 28-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.82 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 22, worth -0.18 EP
PUNT +0.57 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth +0.57 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model