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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 3 at the 20

Cincinnati Bengals 3 – Houston Texans 3

What Actually Happened

(5:31) 2-M.Nugent 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber.

The Three Options

GO +1.90 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 17, worth +4.78 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 20, worth -0.96 EP
KICK +1.57 EP
What Happened
  • 90% chance to make a 37-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.95 EP
  • 10% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 30, worth -1.67 EP
PUNT -0.59 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.59 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.33 EP