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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Houston Texans 4th & 5 at the 41

Houston Texans 3 – Cincinnati Bengals 6

What Actually Happened

(10:56) 9-S.Lechler punts 41 yards to end zone, Center-46-J.Weeks, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO +0.15 EP
Model's Pick
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +3.62 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 41, worth -2.17 EP
KICK -0.49 EP
  • 48% chance to make a 58-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.04 EP
  • 52% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 49, worth -2.85 EP
PUNT -0.29 EP
What Happened
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 12, worth -0.29 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.44 EP