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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Houston Texans 4th & 9 at the 46

Houston Texans 3 – Cincinnati Bengals 6

What Actually Happened

(5:38) 9-S.Lechler punts 37 yards to CIN 9, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 19-B.Tate.

The Three Options

GO -0.83 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 37, worth +3.31 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 46, worth -2.73 EP
KICK -1.18 EP
  • 36% chance to make a 63-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.87 EP
  • 64% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 49, worth -2.86 EP
PUNT -0.61 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 13, worth -0.61 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model