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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 10 at the 80

Cincinnati Bengals 6 – Houston Texans 3

What Actually Happened

(2:33) 10-K.Huber punts 59 yards to HOU 21, Center-46-C.Harris, downed by CIN-26-J.Shaw.

The Three Options

GO -2.08 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.66 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 80, worth -4.32 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

PUNT -1.56 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 37, worth -1.56 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model