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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Houston Texans 4th & 6 at the 57

Houston Texans 10 – Cincinnati Bengals 6

What Actually Happened

(11:58) 9-S.Lechler punts 43 yards to CIN 14, Center-46-J.Weeks. 19-B.Tate to CIN 22 for 8 yards (28-A.Blue; 53-M.Bullough).

The Three Options

GO -0.94 EP
Model's Pick
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +2.28 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 57, worth -2.99 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

PUNT -1.05 EP
What Happened
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 17, worth -1.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model