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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Houston Texans 4th & 7 at the 75

Houston Texans 0 – Cincinnati Bengals 0

What Actually Happened

(10:28) 9-S.Lechler punts 64 yards to CIN 11, Center-46-J.Weeks. 24-A.Jones to CIN 24 for 13 yards (31-C.James).

The Three Options

GO -2.42 EP
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 68, worth +1.03 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 75, worth -4.61 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

PUNT -1.91 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 32, worth -1.91 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model