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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 4 at the 76

Cincinnati Bengals 6 – Houston Texans 10

What Actually Happened

(7:07) 10-K.Huber punts 40 yards to HOU 36, Center-46-C.Harris, downed by CIN-51-C.Carter.

The Three Options

GO -1.30 EP
Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 72, worth +1.35 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 76, worth -4.20 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

PUNT -1.42 EP
What Happened
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 34, worth -1.42 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model