Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Houston Texans 4th & 16 at the 89

Houston Texans 0 – Cincinnati Bengals 0

(6:12) 9-S.Lechler punts 43 yards to CIN 46, Center-46-J.Weeks. 24-A.Jones to CIN 49 for 3 yards (53-M.Bullough; 57-J.Tuggle).

The Three Options

GO -3.63 EP

28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 73, worth +0.56 EP
72% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 89, worth -5.27 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (106 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model