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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New Orleans Saints 4th & 5 at the 65

New Orleans Saints 14 – Washington Commanders 21

What Actually Happened

(7:28) 6-T.Morstead punts 48 yards to WAS 17, Center-47-J.Drescher. 80-J.Crowder to WAS 36 for 19 yards (6-T.Morstead). PENALTY on WAS-34-T.Robinson, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at WAS 26.

The Three Options

GO -1.07 EP
Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +2.00 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 65, worth -3.74 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

PUNT -1.17 EP
What Happened
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 23, worth -1.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model