4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New Orleans Saints 4th & 1 at the 31

New Orleans Saints 14 – Washington Commanders 27

What Actually Happened

(8:59) 28-C.Spiller right guard to WAS 31 for no gain (92-C.Baker; 64-K.Golston).

The Three Options

GO +2.23 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +3.95 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 31, worth -1.51 EP
KICK +0.86 EP
  • 72% chance to make a 48-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.02 EP
  • 28% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 41, worth -2.17 EP
PUNT -0.17 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model