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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Washington Commanders 4th & 1 at the 22

Washington Commanders 27 – New Orleans Saints 14

What Actually Happened

(4:43) 3-D.Hopkins 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way.

The Three Options

GO +2.80 EP
Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 21, worth +4.58 EP
  • 34% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 22, worth -0.67 EP
KICK +1.85 EP
What Happened
  • 87% chance to make a 39-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.33 EP
  • 13% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 32, worth -1.36 EP
PUNT +0.06 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth +0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.94 EP