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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New Orleans Saints 4th & 12 at the 82

New Orleans Saints 14 – Washington Commanders 30

What Actually Happened

(3:31) 6-T.Morstead punts 37 yards to WAS 45, Center-47-J.Drescher. 80-J.Crowder to NO 44 for 11 yards (89-J.Hill).

The Three Options

GO -2.80 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.22 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 82, worth -4.91 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (99 yards).

PUNT -2.15 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 40, worth -2.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model