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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New Orleans Saints 4th & 4 at the 78

New Orleans Saints 14 – Washington Commanders 44

What Actually Happened

(13:28) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass incomplete short middle to 22-M.Ingram (51-W.Compton).

The Three Options

GO -1.67 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 74, worth +0.92 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 78, worth -4.49 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

PUNT -1.93 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 35, worth -1.93 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model