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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New England Patriots 4th & 2 at the 72

New England Patriots 3 – Buffalo Bills 3

What Actually Happened

(8:18) 6-R.Allen punts 41 yards to BUF 31, Center-49-J.Cardona, downed by NE-53-E.Martin.

The Three Options

GO -0.48 EP
Model's Pick
  • 63% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.66 EP
  • 37% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 72, worth -4.16 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -1.32 EP
What Happened
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 30, worth -1.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.84 EP