Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Buffalo Bills 4th & 7 at the 66

Buffalo Bills 3 – New England Patriots 3

(6:37) 6-C.Schmidt punts 59 yards to NE 7, Center-65-G.Sanborn. 80-D.Amendola to NE 13 for 6 yards (27-Du.Williams).

The Three Options

GO -1.58 EP

38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +1.95 EP
62% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 66, worth -3.80 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model