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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New England Patriots 4th & 5 at the 73

New England Patriots 10 – Buffalo Bills 10

What Actually Happened

(9:37) 6-R.Allen punts 38 yards to BUF 35, Center-49-J.Cardona. 21-L.McKelvin to BUF 37 for 2 yards (18-M.Slater).

The Three Options

GO -1.57 EP
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 68, worth +1.34 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 73, worth -4.26 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

PUNT -1.38 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 31, worth -1.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model