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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Buffalo Bills 4th & 4 at the 74

Buffalo Bills 10 – New England Patriots 20

What Actually Happened

(14:26) 6-C.Schmidt punts 46 yards to NE 28, Center-65-G.Sanborn, fair catch by 14-C.Harper.

The Three Options

GO -1.74 EP
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.01 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 74, worth -4.37 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

PUNT -1.45 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 32, worth -1.45 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model