Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New England Patriots 4th & 5 at the 71

New England Patriots 20 – Buffalo Bills 10

(7:47) 6-R.Allen punts 50 yards to BUF 21, Center-49-J.Cardona. 21-L.McKelvin to BUF 25 for 4 yards (43-N.Ebner).

The Three Options

GO -1.40 EP

48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 66, worth +1.56 EP
52% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 71, worth -4.11 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model