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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Buffalo Bills 4th & 8 at the 52

Buffalo Bills 0 – New England Patriots 3

What Actually Happened

(2:14) 6-C.Schmidt punts 26 yards to NE 26, Center-65-G.Sanborn, downed by BUF-36-J.Meeks.

The Three Options

GO -1.04 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +2.81 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 52, worth -3.09 EP
KICK -2.06 EP
  • 20% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.85 EP
  • 80% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 49, worth -3.03 EP
PUNT -0.81 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 15, worth -0.81 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model