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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New England Patriots 4th & 9 at the 46

New England Patriots 3 – Buffalo Bills 0

What Actually Happened

(:12) 6-R.Allen punts 31 yards to BUF 15, Center-49-J.Cardona, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.23 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 37, worth +3.70 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 46, worth -2.35 EP
KICK -0.94 EP
  • 32% chance to make a 63-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.44 EP
  • 68% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 49, worth -2.54 EP
PUNT +0.04 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 13, worth +0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model