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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 3 at the 9

San Francisco 49ers 7 – Seattle Seahawks 20

What Actually Happened

(9:47) 9-P.Dawson 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-5-B.Pinion.

The Three Options

GO +2.30 EP
Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 6, worth +5.46 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 9, worth -0.03 EP
KICK +1.94 EP
What Happened
  • 96% chance to make a 26-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.04 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 21, worth -0.81 EP
PUNT -0.15 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth -0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.36 EP