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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 7 at the 7

San Francisco 49ers 10 – Seattle Seahawks 23

What Actually Happened

(:10) 9-P.Dawson 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-5-B.Pinion.

The Three Options

GO +1.80 EP
  • 29% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.01 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 7, worth +0.07 EP
KICK +1.98 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 97% chance to make a 24-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.06 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 21, worth -0.82 EP
PUNT -0.12 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth -0.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model