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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 1 at the 47

Seattle Seahawks 29 – San Francisco 49ers 13

What Actually Happened

(3:34) 9-J.Ryan punts 38 yards to SF 9, Center-49-C.Gresham, fair catch by 10-B.Ellington.

The Three Options

GO +0.91 EP
Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +2.09 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 47, worth -1.87 EP
KICK -0.62 EP
  • 32% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.28 EP
  • 68% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 49, worth -1.95 EP
PUNT -0.43 EP
What Happened
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 13, worth -0.43 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.33 EP