Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 8 at the 89

San Francisco 49ers 13 – Seattle Seahawks 29

(3:09) 5-B.Pinion punts 42 yards to SEA 47, Center-86-K.Nelson. 16-T.Lockett to SEA 44 for -3 yards (11-Q.Patton).

The Three Options

GO -2.79 EP

36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 81, worth +0.50 EP
64% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 89, worth -4.68 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (106 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model