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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 1 at the 61

San Francisco 49ers 0 – Seattle Seahawks 13

What Actually Happened

(15:00) 5-B.Pinion punts 52 yards to SEA 9, Center-86-K.Nelson. 16-T.Lockett ran ob at SEA 9 for no gain.

The Three Options

GO +0.03 EP
Model's Pick
  • 67% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.78 EP
  • 33% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 61, worth -3.52 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -0.92 EP
What Happened
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 20, worth -0.92 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.96 EP